The Hook: Miami’s Friday Falter, Georgia Topple’s Ole Miss, and The Holy War Recap
Miami’s Friday Falter
#2 Miami (FL) was 5-0 heading into their Friday matchup against Louisville with QB Carson Beck in the driver’s seat to take home the Heisman trophy. What took place was a disaster for the ‘Canes. With 30 seconds remaining and Miami down 3 points, Beck threw his fourth (!) interception of the game, sealing a 24-21 home defeat before the Saturday games even kicked off. Carson Beck’s Heisman Trophy odds plummeted from +360 to +6000 and Miami fell to 9th in the AP Poll and 8th in the ACC.
Georgia Topples Ole Miss
Saturday’s marquee Top 10 matchup between #5 Ole Miss and #9 Georgia did not disappoint. Ole Miss led 35-26 at the end of three quarters and it felt like Lane Kiffin had called the perfect game and the Rebels were going to leave Athens with their first road win @ Georgia since 1996. Thanks to Gunner Stockton and the rest of the Georgia Bulldogs that stepped in the fourth quarter, they’ll have to keep waiting. Kirby Smart’s squad put up 17 unanswered points in the final period. The game finished 43-35.
Holy War: H&L GOTW Recap
I wrote about the Holy War as my game to watch last week, and to no surprise, it rocked. Both teams donned their primary colors (something more rivalry games should do) and played in an instant classic in the shadow of the Wasatch mountains. BYU won their 3rd straight Holy War, highlighted by stymieing Utah on three 4th downs in field goal range, and a massive run by true-freshman QB Bear Bachmeier (Watch HERE) in what was an incredible scene for college football.
The Ladder: How to win in the new Big Ten
Notre Dame ran all over USC on Saturday; the fighting Irish had 306 yards on the ground compared to USC’s 68. How could the Trojans look so soft in the trenches? More importantly, why did they look so good against Michigan and not against USC? It can’t possibly be better coaching, better recruits, or better gameplans.
It had to be one thing: timezones.
The point of this week’s ladder is not to explain how time zones work, as that is an impossible task. I dove into the data and found all the insights into how traveling 2+ time zones affects visiting teams so that I can make excuses when my team gets bullied against non-traditional Big Ten opponents.
The findings? To be honest it’s not that crazy: In games involving Big Ten teams where the away team is travelling 2+ time zones, home teams are 13-10 against the spread. So if you bet $1 million on the home teams in each of these games, you’d be a multi-millionaire at this point in the season, not too shabby.
Sample sizes are small but there were two trends within the dataset that may be helpful. Teams traveling to the west coast are just 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and teams heading east as underdogs are just 4-2 ATS. What does this say about the programs? You could easily make a case that the midwest crowds are especially deafening against top-tier programs, or that the PAC-12-after-dark magic still lives on.
Ultimately, it’s that a UCLA +24.5/Washington -4.5/Oregon -34.5 parlay, will win me almost $17 million dollars according to DraftKings sportsbook (if I rolled over my hypothetical $3 million from earlier in the article, it’s just +561). See y’all in Saint-Tropez.
Disclaimer: I’m a terrible gambler and take no responsibility if these bets don’t hit. However, If they do hit, my venmo is davidkeller_4. Thanks!